This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
For the week of Aug 30th to Sept 5th, interest rates remained flat. Mortgage rates should be heading lower. The job openings data - a Fed favorite - took another stumble and is heading toward 7 million, where it was pre-COVID-19. The internals of the job openings data have been showing softer labor markets for many months now.
Policymakers at the U.S. central bank are widely expected to start lowering interest rates when they meet on Sept. 17-18. George Lagarias, Chief Economist at Forvis Mazars, told CNBC on Thursday that while no one can guarantee the scale of the Fed’s rate cut at its forthcoming meeting, he is “firmly” in the camp calling for a quarter-point reduction.
Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 9/5/2024 – 12:30 PM EST:
Market Review: Optimal Blue's Production Metrics:
Ten U.S. states with the best economy in 2024:
Powerful Predictors
After eliminating recession indicators that don’t send reliable enough signals over their history, there remain 20. This group of indicators includes the Sahm rule, the inverted yield curve, consumer sentiment, etc. Currently, 45% of these indicators have been triggered. This is well up from 10% in 2022, and 25% as recently as 24H1. Critically, every time this percentage has exceeded 30%, a recession was already occurring or was about to.
- Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist
News You Can Use
- Citi says a 50 basis point Fed cut in September is likely
- FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 2022 - Bond market ‘yield curve’ returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears
- Home buyers wade back into housing market as mortgage rates fall for fifth week in a row
- Purchase Applications Respond to Another Small Rate Dip
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can’t wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting
- Half of the nation’s second homes can be found in these states – Florida, California, New York, Texas, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.
1. HomeSURE Advantage is not a final loan approval or a guarantee to lend. A Commitment Letter is based on verified information and documentation provided by the borrower and a review of the borrower's credit report. The interest rate and type of mortgage used to approve borrower for a specified loan amount is subject to change, which may also change the terms of approval. If the interest rate used for credit approval has changed, borrower may need to re-qualify. Information provided by borrower is subject to review and all other loan conditions must be met. After a borrower has chosen a home and the purchase offer has been accepted, final loan approval will be contingent upon obtaining an acceptable appraisal and title commitment. Additional documentation and loan qualifications may be required. Not all borrowers will qualify. May not be available in all areas.
. Some restrictions may apply. The Closing Guarantee is only available on HomeSURE Advantage-designated, conventional, FHA and VA loans with a valid Commitment Letter issued by HomeServices Lending, LLC, in writing prior to execution of fully ratified sales contract. Some jumbo loan programs may be eligible at the sole discretion of HomeServices Lending, LLC. Brokered jumbo loans are NOT eligible, and any jumbo loan programs requiring investor preapproval are NOT eligible. The Closing Guarantee is NOT available on renovation loan products, loans for the purchase of cooperative housing units, or loans involving any sort or type of bond, grant, down payment assistance, mortgage credit certificate, or any other non-profit, municipal, or housing authority program. For conventional loans, FHA loans, and VA loans, an acceptable appraisal must be received and approved by HomeServices Lending, LLC at least ten (10) business days prior to closing or loan is not eligible for Closing Guarantee. The Commitment Agreement has an expiration date, which, solely for purposes of eligibility for the Closing Guarantee, may not be extended. The loan must close on or before the expiration date contained in the initial Commitment Agreement issued by Prosperity. Subject to acceptable appraisal of property value at or above contract sales price. The Closing Guarantee is subject to the satisfaction by the Borrower(s) of all loan conditions identified in the Commitment Agreement at least three (3) business days prior to closing or as otherwise determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC in its sole discretion. The Closing Guarantee is not valid if either Borrower(s) or Seller terminate the purchase contract, extend the settlement date, or otherwise choose not to consummate the transaction for any reason whatsoever. The Closing Guarantee is invalid if there is a substantial change in the Borrower's financial condition or to the terms of either the loan, loan product, loan type, or the purchase contract between Borrower(s) and Seller. The Closing Guarantee is void in the event closing is delayed or cancelled as a direct result of an unforeseen disruption of service; an act of God; a national, state, or local emergency; pandemic; natural disaster; or other public health declaration. This offer is void where prohibited and is non-transferable, subject to the terms herein, and valid on all complete applications received on or before 12/31/2024. The Closing Guarantee is limited solely to the transaction and subject property identified herein.
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 09/05/2024, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 09/05/2024 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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