Market Update - November 9, 2024

This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.

Market Commentary 

A Pivotal Week for Interest Rates and the Nation

This week marked a significant turning point, not only for interest rates but also for the nation as a whole. The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by a quarter-point, coupled with the election results, has created a dynamic landscape for economic forecasting.

The Fed's rate reduction was largely influenced by weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll figures and ongoing progress in combating inflation. However, it is crucial to note that the Fed's actions do not have a direct impact on mortgage rates. The trajectory of interest rates over the next four years will undoubtedly be closely monitored.

During the week of November 1st to November 8th, interest rates initially saw a slight uptick, but subsequently declined following the Fed's rate cut.

Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 11/08/2024 – 12:30 PM EST):

Market Review: Optimal Blue's Production Metrics:

US Housing Outlook – September 2024:

Presidential Predictions

While the polls were once again disturbingly poor in telling us how voters planned to vote, prediction markets that rely on the wisdom of markets to offer odds on a candidate winning were materially better. The average odds from five political betting markets showed Trump with better than 50/50 odds heading into election day, and by the time the polls closed the odds had shot up considerably. - Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist

News You Can Use

• Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
• Consumers Feeling Better About Housing Market Despite High Home Prices
• Trump’s presidency signals new regulatory era for mortgages
• Mortgage demand has fallen 41% since Fed’s 50 bps cut
• These two ‘low tax’ states are getting socked with fast-rising property taxes
• 10 affordable cities poised to become million-dollar markets in a decade
• Almost 90% of Metro Areas Posted Home Price Increases in Third Quarter of 2024
• First-Time Home Buyers Shrink to Historic Low of 24% as Buyer Age Hits Record High

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1. HomeSURE Advantage is not a final loan approval or a guarantee to lend. A Commitment Letter is based on verified information and documentation provided by the borrower and a review of the borrower's credit report. The interest rate and type of mortgage used to approve borrower for a specified loan amount is subject to change, which may also change the terms of approval. If the interest rate used for credit approval has changed, borrower may need to re-qualify. Information provided by borrower is subject to review and all other loan conditions must be met. After a borrower has chosen a home and the purchase offer has been accepted, final loan approval will be contingent upon obtaining an acceptable appraisal and title commitment. Additional documentation and loan qualifications may be required. Not all borrowers will qualify. May not be available in all areas.

2. Some restrictions may apply. The Closing Guarantee is only available on HomeSURE Advantage-designated, conventional, FHA and VA loans with a valid Commitment Letter issued by HomeServices Lending, LLC, in writing prior to execution of fully ratified sales contract. Some jumbo loan programs may be eligible at the sole discretion of HomeServices Lending, LLC. Brokered jumbo loans are NOT eligible, and any jumbo loan programs requiring investor preapproval are NOT eligible. The Closing Guarantee is NOT available on renovation loan products, loans for the purchase of cooperative housing units, or loans involving any sort or type of bond, grant, down payment assistance, mortgage credit certificate, or any other non-profit, municipal, or housing authority program. For conventional loans, FHA loans, and VA loans, an acceptable appraisal must be received and approved by HomeServices Lending, LLC. at least ten (10) business days prior to closing or loan is not eligible for Closing Guarantee. The Commitment Agreement has an expiration date, which, solely for purposes of eligibility for the Closing Guarantee, may not be extended. The loan must close on or before the expiration date contained in the initial Commitment Agreement issued by HomeServices Lending, LLC. Subject to acceptable appraisal of property value at or above contract sales price. The Closing Guarantee is subject to the satisfaction by the Borrower(s) of all loan conditions identified in the Commitment Agreement at least three (3) business days prior to closing or as otherwise determined by HomeServices Lending, LLC. in its sole discretion. The Closing Guarantee is not valid if either Borrower(s) or Seller terminate the purchase contract, extend the settlement date, or otherwise choose not to consummate the transaction for any reason whatsoever. The Closing Guarantee is invalid if there is a substantial change in the Borrower's financial condition or to the terms of either the loan, loan product, loan type, or the purchase contract between Borrower(s) and Seller. The Closing Guarantee is void in the event closing is delayed or cancelled as a direct result of an unforeseen disruption of service; an act of God; a national, state, or local emergency; pandemic; natural disaster; or other public health declaration. This offer is void where prohibited and is non-transferable, subject to the terms herein, and valid on all complete applications received on or before 12/31/2024. The Closing Guarantee is limited solely to the transaction and subject property identified herein.

HomeServices Lending, LLC is not affiliated with or endorsed by any government agencies.

*Borrowers are eligible for a lender credit toward closing costs on the Closing Disclosure on a new purchase, secured by a first mortgage or deed of trust (New Loan), subject to qualification, approval and closing with HomeServices Lending, LLC. Loan must close within 90 days from the date of loan application. Lender credit may not exceed $1,000.00 for appraisal and will be applied against the cost of the first appraisal only. No credit will be provided for additional appraisals, if required. This offer must be presented at time of application and all eligibility requirements met no later than 2 days prior to the New Loan closing date. This lender credit is non-transferable, subject to the terms herein, and valid on all complete applications received on or before 12/31/2024. Incentive offers valid on complete VA home loan applications received between 01/01/2024 and 12/31/2024.

Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 11/8/2024, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined HomeServices Lending, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 11/08/2024 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.

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